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Let's be real!
- Thread starter grizpsych
- Start date
ilovethecats
Well-known member
Dillon said:
I’m not 50 yet. But I didn’t read anyone say we should not be isolated. That’s fine if it’s the only way out of this mess. My question is how long and at what cost? If they announced tomorrow the isolation needs to continue through December is that ok? Where is the line? Are we waiting for there to be zero cases in the entire country?
I admit there is no easy answer. I just find myself fascinated by the fear and precautions being taken over a virus a tiny percentage of us will get and a tiny percentage of that tiny percentage will die.
I hope everyone stays healthy!
Where do you draw the line? That's good, logical question iltc has. A lot of people are asking the same thing.
The problem with that question is the answer evolves with coronavirus. It's not much different than asking how much rain is going to fall during the oncoming storm. The people (experts) predicting (forecasting/modeling) these things narrow down their predictions as the storm evolves and draws nearer.
Early on there were predictions (based on models) that said 2 million deaths (actually up to 2 millon). Those models also had very low numbers, which don't really catch anyone's eye or make the news. Everyone sees the high end number. Just like a snowstorm forecast (based on a model) predicts 6-12 inches and when you hear it word of mouth it's always 12 inches. I can't tell you how many times people have told me the forecast says a foot of snow tonight, but what the forecast actually said was "up to a foot of snow in the mountains tonight." You then get 2 inches in town and then you hear someone say, "the weatherman is an idiot!"
Right now the number is 82,000, but no one looks at the part that says as high as 82,000. There's always a range. Probably around 40,000 to 82,000.
Anyway, I don't think you can draw a line until you see significant improvement. I would guess that will be around the end of April, if things go as expected. There's supposed to be a peak (the first peak) near mid-April and then it's supposed to start receding. There will be another peak, probably in the late fall. Who knows what it'll be like. There's a vaccine, but it's 18 months away.
My question is, are people "panicking" about the economy just like this virus? I hear people say the damaged economy is going to be a hundred times worse than the virus. Is that hyperbole? It could happen and I'm sure some models showing that, but what makes those guesses any more accurate and less panic-inducing than what's happening with coronavirus?
The problem with that question is the answer evolves with coronavirus. It's not much different than asking how much rain is going to fall during the oncoming storm. The people (experts) predicting (forecasting/modeling) these things narrow down their predictions as the storm evolves and draws nearer.
Early on there were predictions (based on models) that said 2 million deaths (actually up to 2 millon). Those models also had very low numbers, which don't really catch anyone's eye or make the news. Everyone sees the high end number. Just like a snowstorm forecast (based on a model) predicts 6-12 inches and when you hear it word of mouth it's always 12 inches. I can't tell you how many times people have told me the forecast says a foot of snow tonight, but what the forecast actually said was "up to a foot of snow in the mountains tonight." You then get 2 inches in town and then you hear someone say, "the weatherman is an idiot!"
Right now the number is 82,000, but no one looks at the part that says as high as 82,000. There's always a range. Probably around 40,000 to 82,000.
Anyway, I don't think you can draw a line until you see significant improvement. I would guess that will be around the end of April, if things go as expected. There's supposed to be a peak (the first peak) near mid-April and then it's supposed to start receding. There will be another peak, probably in the late fall. Who knows what it'll be like. There's a vaccine, but it's 18 months away.
My question is, are people "panicking" about the economy just like this virus? I hear people say the damaged economy is going to be a hundred times worse than the virus. Is that hyperbole? It could happen and I'm sure some models showing that, but what makes those guesses any more accurate and less panic-inducing than what's happening with coronavirus?
From very recent interview of head of CDC, on NPR:
"At the end of the day, most of us who get this infection will recover. The majority of people do — probably 98%, almost 98.5%, 99% recover. The challenge is the older, the vulnerable, the elderly, those with significant medical conditions where this virus has shown a propensity to have a significant mortality."
This virus does have the ability to transmit far easier than flu. It's probably now about three times as infectious as flu.
a significant number of individuals that are infected actually remain asymptomatic. That may be as many as 25%.
And finally, of those of us that get symptomatic, it appears that we're shedding significant virus in our oropharyngeal compartment, probably up to 48 hours before we show symptoms.
But [after those surges] 95% of Americans will still have not been exposed to this virus at all.
I think many of us believe as we're moving into the late spring, early summer season, you're going to see the transmission decrease, similar to what we see with flu as the virus then moves into the Southern Hemisphere.
This virus cannot go from person to person that easily. It needs us to be close. It needs us to be within 6 feet. If we just distance ourselves, this virus can't sustain itself and it will go out."
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... be-with-us
"At the end of the day, most of us who get this infection will recover. The majority of people do — probably 98%, almost 98.5%, 99% recover. The challenge is the older, the vulnerable, the elderly, those with significant medical conditions where this virus has shown a propensity to have a significant mortality."
This virus does have the ability to transmit far easier than flu. It's probably now about three times as infectious as flu.
a significant number of individuals that are infected actually remain asymptomatic. That may be as many as 25%.
And finally, of those of us that get symptomatic, it appears that we're shedding significant virus in our oropharyngeal compartment, probably up to 48 hours before we show symptoms.
But [after those surges] 95% of Americans will still have not been exposed to this virus at all.
I think many of us believe as we're moving into the late spring, early summer season, you're going to see the transmission decrease, similar to what we see with flu as the virus then moves into the Southern Hemisphere.
This virus cannot go from person to person that easily. It needs us to be close. It needs us to be within 6 feet. If we just distance ourselves, this virus can't sustain itself and it will go out."
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... be-with-us
ilovethecats
Well-known member
getgrizzy said:
Thanks for the post GG. Solid thought behind it. I agree with lots of what you said.
In simple terms I’ll say it’s certainly possible that some are panicking about the economy. And I’ll concede that guesses about the economy are no more founded than guesses about the virus. You just take all the info you can find and make your own assumptions.
Currently the numbers say that in the US, .056% of our population have gotten the virus. We all agree it’s likely more because many have been said to have little or no symptoms. Based on these numbers it’s something like .001% of our population have died. So while I’ll concede there are probably far more cases in this country, all that is going to do is lower the percentage of deaths. And to be clear, I’m not acting like these deaths don’t matter. They most certainly do.
I’m not going to pretend to have concrete numbers in regards to the economy. I’m not that smart. I’m a layman. I do know that we set a record for people filing unemployment last week, over 3 million people. That number is higher this week. I know plenty of people have not been able to work for 2 weeks, and for most that will be extended to a minimum of 4 more weeks. That’s a month and a half minimum that families don’t have money coming in. We’re already seeing the toll it’s taking on the economy. That will only get worse every day people can’t work.
Then you add in the depression, mental health, and desperation that comes with lack of money. Italy is seeing it today as we speak. Crime rising, robberies, looting, etc. This is to be expected when people have no money for over a month. So it’s certainly a consideration.
I assume that every business, big or small, struggle when forced to be closed. Obviously the length of closure impacts the struggle. Can businesses survive if they’re closed a month? How about 3, or 6, or a year? I’d suspect that most can’t. That obviously will remain to be seen when we’re on the right end of this thing.
I just think we need to be careful is all. We seem to making some major sacrifices right now that could really effect people’s livelihoods later. And without trying to sound insensitive, the numbers are the numbers. I can give you a list 10 deep right now of things that are going to kill way more people in this country than the virus. As it is I can almost assure you (I’d bet my house) that suicides will far surpass corona deaths in this country thus year. And those numbers will most certainly rise if people are losing their jobs, losing their homes, losing their ability to make a living because of a virus.
It’s a lot to chew on. Answers aren’t easy. And while I personally think Trump is a wank, I think he’s doing ok on a job no one would want right now. Appreciate the banter.
ilovethecats
Well-known member
PlayerRep said:
Me neither. And even if it did it would be a death rate of about .073% of our population. Far far below some of the crazy claims a couple weeks ago. I hope it’s much much lower!
...99 percent of the people that get Covid will survive! ..in Sweden they are using commonsense and if you are susceptible you
should stay home and quarantine ..I like this approach because they value their economy... do we trust each other or do we
have to be told what to do?...I prefer personal responsibility..
should stay home and quarantine ..I like this approach because they value their economy... do we trust each other or do we
have to be told what to do?...I prefer personal responsibility..
During the 1918 Flu pandemic, cities that had stricter laws to control the virus experienced a quicker economic revival.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-d...distancingcanbegoodfortheeconomygraphicdetail
https://www.economist.com/graphic-d...distancingcanbegoodfortheeconomygraphicdetail
kemajic said:
..sure there is always the extreme but do we punish the law abiding citizens that will do the right thing..do u punish law abiding
citizens who own a gun for protection because a criminal kills people..government over-reach can be a very dangerous
thing and we should always be on the guard of its abuse.. communist countries love extreme because it gives them the excuse
to take away more freedom from their people..wether we like or not we lost a lot of our freedom in 9/11..this pendulum
could easily swing that way..I do think this virus is serious but I also trust 'most' people making good commonsense decisions.
I think Sweden has it right on this one!
