Let's be real!

[grizpsych]

Projections be damned, Currently, 311,357 have been identified with the COVID-19 Virus in the USA. From those, 23,193 have come to a conclusion (death versus recovered). So far, 36.45% have died!

This is without projections. This is what it is. Currently!

 

[PlayerRep]

Projections be damned, Currently, 311,357 have been identified with the COVID-19 Virus in the USA. From those, 23,193 have come to a conclusion (death versus recovered). So far, 36.45% have died!

This is without projections. This is what it is. Currently!

For a supposed college professor, you are posting stupid. Please stop.

 

[grizpsych]

Projections be damned, Currently, 311,357 have been identified with the COVID-19 Virus in the USA. From those, 23,193 have come to a conclusion (death versus recovered). So far, 36.45% have died!

This is without projections. This is what it is. Currently!

For a supposed college professor, you are posting stupid. Please stop.

Here is where this data comes from asshole. I'm sorry you cannot comprehend the metric. It's about diagnosed people that have reached a conclusion. Not about the entire possible population with the virus.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

[Dutch Lane]

The 3.4% mortality was upon the first data set the US had and has since decreased substantially. Infectious disease experts on the front lines of this thing have the mortality rate at 1% and maybe under now as more and more data rolls in (people being tested). They are certain tons of people have had this already and recovered without even knowing they had it. This would drive the mortality number down as well. It’s new, not a lot of immunity, no vaccine so we are all being over cautious until we know more. But the mortality rates are not on a level like SARS and others we’ve already been through.

Golly Gee Willikers I agree with Hooked!

We won't know for months or even years but I still maintain that looking back we'll see this whole thing was overblown in terms of lives lost.

I don't have a problem with people taking it seriously. It is serious and it is costing lives. I guess my frustration with some is the hypocrisy of the whole things. We value lives more than anything in this pandemic. That is fine. But a lost life is a lost life. And we all agree there are MANY things costing people lives in this country every day and we turn a blind eye. So I take issue to people calling out people like me who refuse to panic about this virus, all the while turning a blind eye to drug and alcohol deaths, homelessness, obesity, violent crimes, tobacco related deaths and drunk driving to name a few. They are all terrible.

So take this thing seriously. Try to end it asap. Do whatever necessary to save lives. But look at the big picture. Lives lost to this virus are no more important than lives lost a countless number of other ways.

I take your point but only to a point. Lol. The other deaths you referred to in your post are really mostly life style related “choices” that people make of their free will excepted for victims of violent crimes. People chose to be unhealthy they chose to smoke or drink or not get a flu shots etc., contracting a pandemic is really not a choice is it. Your risks are higher by how you social distance and quarantine but after that it’s a crap shoot. Interesting discussion through.

 

[RayWill]

For a supposed college professor, you are posting stupid. Please stop.

Here is where this data comes from asshole. I'm sorry you cannot comprehend the metric. It's about diagnosed people that have reached a conclusion. Not about the entire possible population with the virus.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

From your own link the death total is only 2.96% try going back to it and actually looking at the numbers.

 

[ilovethecats]

Golly Gee Willikers I agree with Hooked!

We won't know for months or even years but I still maintain that looking back we'll see this whole thing was overblown in terms of lives lost.

I don't have a problem with people taking it seriously. It is serious and it is costing lives. I guess my frustration with some is the hypocrisy of the whole things. We value lives more than anything in this pandemic. That is fine. But a lost life is a lost life. And we all agree there are MANY things costing people lives in this country every day and we turn a blind eye. So I take issue to people calling out people like me who refuse to panic about this virus, all the while turning a blind eye to drug and alcohol deaths, homelessness, obesity, violent crimes, tobacco related deaths and drunk driving to name a few. They are all terrible.

So take this thing seriously. Try to end it asap. Do whatever necessary to save lives. But look at the big picture. Lives lost to this virus are no more important than lives lost a countless number of other ways.

I take your point but only to a point. Lol. The other deaths you referred to in your post are really mostly life style related “choices” that people make of their free will excepted for victims of violent crimes. People chose to be unhealthy they chose to smoke or drink or not get a flu shots etc., contracting a pandemic is really not a choice is it. Your risks are higher by how you social distance and quarantine but after that it’s a crap shoot. Interesting discussion through.

I don’t disagree Dutch. My point isn’t to just compare thus virus to other forms of death. Although that is my stance. Lol. There are countless things that are going to kill more Americans this year than this virus.

My initial point in this thread was more about the hypocrisy and fear mongering as it relates to deaths. We won’t have all the data for months and years obviously, but as of now my stance to be correct. First they were saying as many as 2.5 million American deaths. Then they scaled it back to 500,000. Last week it was as many as 100,000-240,000 American deaths. Today Fauchi said he’s cautiously optimistic that number could be even lower. We all hope it is.

My fear is the sacrifices we’re making right now to save lives will end up costing more lives and livelihoods in the months and years to come. Just my opinion of course. I guess it’s still possible a million plus Americans will die and whenever we open up the economy it will thrive and people will get back to their lives! But I don’t think so

 

[PlayerRep]

For a supposed college professor, you are posting stupid. Please stop.

Here is where this data comes from asshole. I'm sorry you cannot comprehend the metric. It's about diagnosed people that have reached a conclusion. Not about the entire possible population with the virus.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I look at that site 5 times a day. Stop being stupid. The ratio you cite is irrelevant. My god, I can't believe you teach college students.

 

[grizpsych]

Here is where this data comes from asshole. I'm sorry you cannot comprehend the metric. It's about diagnosed people that have reached a conclusion. Not about the entire possible population with the virus.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

From your own link the death total is only 2.96% try going back to it and actually looking at the numbers.

I know. That is a different metric ((number dead / number diagnosed)* 100).

I'm using (number dead / (number dead + number recovered) * 100)

By the time everyone recovers the two percentages will equal each other. Mine is definitely an overestimation. But it is outcome-based. PlayerRep is just being his usual old fart self.

 

[Raider]

From your own link the death total is only 2.96% try going back to it and actually looking at the numbers.

I know. That is a different metric ((number dead / number diagnosed)* 100).

I'm using (number dead / (number dead + number recovered) * 100)

By the time everyone recovers the two percentages will equal each other. Mine is definitely an overestimation. But it is outcome-based. PlayerRep is just being his usual old fart self.

No, he is not.

You, like many others, are spreading misinformation and fear. I don’t care if it’s an anonymous message board, we all have a social responsibility not perpetuate this kind of crap. You can spin it as fact, but you know it’s complete garbage.

And it PR is right, and you teach college students, wow.

 

[grizpsych]

I know. That is a different metric ((number dead / number diagnosed)* 100).

I'm using (number dead / (number dead + number recovered) * 100)

By the time everyone recovers the two percentages will equal each other. Mine is definitely an overestimation. But it is outcome-based. PlayerRep is just being his usual old fart self.

No, he is not.

You, like many others, are spreading misinformation and fear. I don’t care if it’s an anonymous message board, we all have a social responsibility not perpetuate this kind of crap. You can spin it as fact, but you know it’s complete garbage.

And it PR is right, and you teach college students, wow.

You all are reading more into my post than required. I didn't make the numbers up, I just put the numbers into the above equation to see what the current likelihood is for each outcome. I'm fully aware that there are factors that influence the validity of the result (e.g., non-diagnosed sick, low-testing, non-diagnosed recovery, non-diagnosed death, number of ventilators, people die faster than recover, etc.).

 

[HookedonGriz]

I am now convinced Griz psych is the one responsible for the UK models that estimated 5,000,000 deaths and recently walked that back to 20,000. Talk about a swing and a miss. I kid Griz psych.....sort of.....I know what your equation is but it’s not a fair one, unless you were just trolling.

 

[PlayerRep]

No, he is not.

You, like many others, are spreading misinformation and fear. I don’t care if it’s an anonymous message board, we all have a social responsibility not perpetuate this kind of crap. You can spin it as fact, but you know it’s complete garbage.

And it PR is right, and you teach college students, wow.

You all are reading more into my post than required. I didn't make the numbers up, I just put the numbers into the above equation to see what the current likelihood is for each outcome. I'm fully aware that there are factors that influence the validity of the result (e.g., non-diagnosed sick, low-testing, non-diagnosed recovery, non-diagnosed death, number of ventilators, people die faster than recover, etc.).

So, using your formula, what number of deaths for Montana?

 

[ilovethecats]

I am now convinced Griz psych is the one responsible for the UK models that estimated 5,000,000 deaths and recently walked that back to 20,000. Talk about a swing and a miss. I kid Griz psych.....sort of.....I know what your equation is but it’s not a fair one, unless you were just trolling.

These threads will be amazing to come back and visit in the coming months and years. We had similar posters on BN a few weeks ago predicting millions of deaths. I just couldn't for the life of me figure out where these numbers, and fear, were coming from!

It bothers me that people completely ignore that we have the best and brightest in the world working on beating this thing. Every single day we wake up and read they are discovering amazing things, and predicted death tolls are going down. The talking heads on Fox and CNN are great for entertainment. They know what they are doing and they know their audience. But I'm so thankful we have people 1000x smarter than these people working day and night on a cure, and not just weak political talking points.

 

[getgrizzy]

100,000 - 240,000, according to the White House advisors.

"And they said they hoped mortality from the disease could be reduced below the low end of the estimate."

I don't see the US getting close to that number.

Me neither. And even if it did it would be a death rate of about .073% of our population. Far far below some of the crazy claims a couple weeks ago. I hope it’s much much lower!

You do understand that models based on data input into them made those calculations, right? And that the same models using new data continue to update those calculations.
It isn’t just some scientists guessing. They weren’t crazy claims just because your intuition told you they were wrong.

You, and others, were guessing that it wouldn’t be that bad. I found the numbers suspect, but realized that the numbers are liquid early on. I was hoping they were off, but realized they could be spot on or even too low.

The drug Trump is pushing could work, but doctors and scientists haven’t conclusively come to a consensus on it. If they do conclude it works, that doesn’t mean Trump knew that it would.

Yes, it’s great that the early models were wrong and it would be great if that drug works, but let’s not start leading ourselves to believe that the people working with the models and testing the drugs shouldn’t be listened to and that some guy off the street knows better.

 

['68griz]

"Rock and a hard place." If you go out and "stock up" for a really long "siege," you might be depriving other shoppers who are really, really short. But if you don't, you may come up short yourself. So far, we've managed to stretch it out to 7-8 days between trips. Still, when we went out yesterday, the grocery store had not been able to completely restock the soup racks. Suck it up, buttercup! Cream of celery ain't that bad. (Mostly) filled one cart and called it good.

One small good that could come of this. As someone mentioned elsewhere, Albertson's has installed clear plastic screens to shield their checkers. Considered how many "random" people they are exposed to, this is a great idea ... and worth keeping "forever."

There is no reason to go to the grocery store. You can order everything you need on line from virtually any store and have it delivered. You can order every day if you want and most if not all stores are offering free delivery.
The vast majority of Americans are making incredible sacrifices in order to keep our most vulnerable neighbors safe and avoid crashing our health care systems. It would be helpful if our most vulnerable could meet us halfway by not exposing themselves to unnecessary risk.

Not all of us live where there is delivery service. I wanted to order a meal from a restaurant last night, but all the delivery services said we were "outside of delivery range." So, we had leftovers...

 

[grizpsych]

You all are reading more into my post than required. I didn't make the numbers up, I just put the numbers into the above equation to see what the current likelihood is for each outcome. I'm fully aware that there are factors that influence the validity of the result (e.g., non-diagnosed sick, low-testing, non-diagnosed recovery, non-diagnosed death, number of ventilators, people die faster than recover, etc.).

So, using your formula, what number of deaths for Montana?

Here is the same metric for Montana. (of course larger samples are better!) 38 known cases have come to a conclusion. Out of those 38 cases that have come to a conclusion (recovered versus died), six have died. Thus, (6/38)*100 = 15.8% of Montanans diagnosed with COVID-19 and have reached a conclusion have died. Doing the same thing for the entire world, we get 21%. It's the first metric on the right of the screen here. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Kudos for Montana being below current average. Note. I still realize the factors that skew this metric. But, this metric is important because it is not a projection. It is based on current descriptive statistics--as flawed as they might be.

 

[grizpsych]

I am now convinced Griz psych is the one responsible for the UK models that estimated 5,000,000 deaths and recently walked that back to 20,000. Talk about a swing and a miss. I kid Griz psych.....sort of.....I know what your equation is but it’s not a fair one, unless you were just trolling.

This is where we are breaking down in our conversation. The descriptive statistic that I am reporting has nothing to do with projecting into the future. It only is a statistic about the here and now. I could, and maybe should do this stat each day. What you all keep thinking about is this stats change per day--it's derivative. We could do that to, once we get enough data. Regardless, Montana's context promotes spreading of people. Awesome. I so wish people will learn more about math from this. And, of course, the dynamic processes of keeping each other healthy.

 

[grizpsych]

By the way, it was not unnoticed that we went from disparaging my choice in profession to asking me relevant questions. I appreciate the relevant questions and am always willing to be wrong. Here though, I am simply giving a descriptive result based on other descriptive metrics. By no means am I an expert in this field. Thus I stay to the descriptive statistics rather than the inferential statistics. There is no projection to the future. I realize this metric has flaws. I also realize these flaws will get smaller as the sample size increases. Thus, I appreciate non fearful, educational questions here.

 

[Grizbeer]

There is no reason to go to the grocery store. You can order everything you need on line from virtually any store and have it delivered. You can order every day if you want and most if not all stores are offering free delivery.
The vast majority of Americans are making incredible sacrifices in order to keep our most vulnerable neighbors safe and avoid crashing our health care systems. It would be helpful if our most vulnerable could meet us halfway by not exposing themselves to unnecessary risk.

Not all of us live where there is delivery service. I wanted to order a meal from a restaurant last night, but all the delivery services said we were "outside of delivery range." So, we had leftovers...

Thank you for your immense sacrifice to keep yourself healthy. It is brave septuagenarians like your self who are willing to give up a meal from you favorite Resteraunt that makes it easier to explain to that high school senior, the first in his family to graduate from high school, that giving up his senior year in high school with his friends and missing senior prom and graduation ceremonies in front of his family is worth it. Sure if he got the flu he might have a headache for a week, but his sacrifice to keep the at risk safe pales in comparison to the septuagenarians missing out on their favorite meal.

Bravo '68, if only all people in the at risk category could follow your example.

 

[Copper Griz]

So, using your formula, what number of deaths for Montana?

Here is the same metric for Montana. (of course larger samples are better!) 38 known cases have come to a conclusion. Out of those 38 cases that have come to a conclusion (recovered versus died), six have died. Thus, (6/38)*100 = 15.8% of Montanans diagnosed with COVID-19 and have reached a conclusion have died. Doing the same thing for the entire world, we get 21%. It's the first metric on the right of the screen here. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Kudos for Montana being below current average. Note. I still realize the factors that skew this metric. But, this metric is important because it is not a projection. It is based on current descriptive statistics--as flawed as they might be.

Interesting statistics and thanks for sharing. Compare that death rate with influenza, which has a vaccine. Not pretty. I personally don’t let my politics influence scientific based phenomenon. Thankfully some governors took the situation seriously and that clearly reduced the death rate. I don’t give a damn if you watch Faux News or the Communist News Network. Treating this situation with a cavalier attitude is moronic. Visit an ICU with a few patients on ventilators and maybe some on this board can pull their head out of their arses. My hope is they develop a vaccine quickly or an aggressive antibody treatment regime. Now back to football. Keep social distancing in place and get the transmission issue under control. There won’t be a football season if not. Might not be anyway unfortunately.