grizpsych said:Projections be damned, Currently, 311,357 have been identified with the COVID-19 Virus in the USA. From those, 23,193 have come to a conclusion (death versus recovered). So far, 36.45% have died!
This is without projections. This is what it is. Currently!
PlayerRep said:grizpsych said:Projections be damned, Currently, 311,357 have been identified with the COVID-19 Virus in the USA. From those, 23,193 have come to a conclusion (death versus recovered). So far, 36.45% have died!
This is without projections. This is what it is. Currently!
For a supposed college professor, you are posting stupid. Please stop.
ilovethecats said:Golly Gee Willikers I agree with Hooked!HookedonGriz said:The 3.4% mortality was upon the first data set the US had and has since decreased substantially. Infectious disease experts on the front lines of this thing have the mortality rate at 1% and maybe under now as more and more data rolls in (people being tested). They are certain tons of people have had this already and recovered without even knowing they had it. This would drive the mortality number down as well. It’s new, not a lot of immunity, no vaccine so we are all being over cautious until we know more. But the mortality rates are not on a level like SARS and others we’ve already been through.
We won't know for months or even years but I still maintain that looking back we'll see this whole thing was overblown in terms of lives lost.
I don't have a problem with people taking it seriously. It is serious and it is costing lives. I guess my frustration with some is the hypocrisy of the whole things. We value lives more than anything in this pandemic. That is fine. But a lost life is a lost life. And we all agree there are MANY things costing people lives in this country every day and we turn a blind eye. So I take issue to people calling out people like me who refuse to panic about this virus, all the while turning a blind eye to drug and alcohol deaths, homelessness, obesity, violent crimes, tobacco related deaths and drunk driving to name a few. They are all terrible.
So take this thing seriously. Try to end it asap. Do whatever necessary to save lives. But look at the big picture. Lives lost to this virus are no more important than lives lost a countless number of other ways.
grizpsych said:PlayerRep said:For a supposed college professor, you are posting stupid. Please stop.
Here is where this data comes from asshole. I'm sorry you cannot comprehend the metric. It's about diagnosed people that have reached a conclusion. Not about the entire possible population with the virus.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Dutch Lane said:ilovethecats said:Golly Gee Willikers I agree with Hooked!
We won't know for months or even years but I still maintain that looking back we'll see this whole thing was overblown in terms of lives lost.
I don't have a problem with people taking it seriously. It is serious and it is costing lives. I guess my frustration with some is the hypocrisy of the whole things. We value lives more than anything in this pandemic. That is fine. But a lost life is a lost life. And we all agree there are MANY things costing people lives in this country every day and we turn a blind eye. So I take issue to people calling out people like me who refuse to panic about this virus, all the while turning a blind eye to drug and alcohol deaths, homelessness, obesity, violent crimes, tobacco related deaths and drunk driving to name a few. They are all terrible.
So take this thing seriously. Try to end it asap. Do whatever necessary to save lives. But look at the big picture. Lives lost to this virus are no more important than lives lost a countless number of other ways.
I take your point but only to a point. Lol. The other deaths you referred to in your post are really mostly life style related “choices” that people make of their free will excepted for victims of violent crimes. People chose to be unhealthy they chose to smoke or drink or not get a flu shots etc., contracting a pandemic is really not a choice is it. Your risks are higher by how you social distance and quarantine but after that it’s a crap shoot. Interesting discussion through.
grizpsych said:PlayerRep said:For a supposed college professor, you are posting stupid. Please stop.
Here is where this data comes from asshole. I'm sorry you cannot comprehend the metric. It's about diagnosed people that have reached a conclusion. Not about the entire possible population with the virus.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
RayWill said:grizpsych said:Here is where this data comes from asshole. I'm sorry you cannot comprehend the metric. It's about diagnosed people that have reached a conclusion. Not about the entire possible population with the virus.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
From your own link the death total is only 2.96% try going back to it and actually looking at the numbers.
grizpsych said:RayWill said:From your own link the death total is only 2.96% try going back to it and actually looking at the numbers.
I know. That is a different metric ((number dead / number diagnosed)* 100).
I'm using (number dead / (number dead + number recovered) * 100)
By the time everyone recovers the two percentages will equal each other. Mine is definitely an overestimation. But it is outcome-based. PlayerRep is just being his usual old fart self.
You all are reading more into my post than required. I didn't make the numbers up, I just put the numbers into the above equation to see what the current likelihood is for each outcome. I'm fully aware that there are factors that influence the validity of the result (e.g., non-diagnosed sick, low-testing, non-diagnosed recovery, non-diagnosed death, number of ventilators, people die faster than recover, etc.).Raider said:grizpsych said:I know. That is a different metric ((number dead / number diagnosed)* 100).
I'm using (number dead / (number dead + number recovered) * 100)
By the time everyone recovers the two percentages will equal each other. Mine is definitely an overestimation. But it is outcome-based. PlayerRep is just being his usual old fart self.
No, he is not.
You, like many others, are spreading misinformation and fear. I don’t care if it’s an anonymous message board, we all have a social responsibility not perpetuate this kind of crap. You can spin it as fact, but you know it’s complete garbage.
And it PR is right, and you teach college students, wow.
grizpsych said:You all are reading more into my post than required. I didn't make the numbers up, I just put the numbers into the above equation to see what the current likelihood is for each outcome. I'm fully aware that there are factors that influence the validity of the result (e.g., non-diagnosed sick, low-testing, non-diagnosed recovery, non-diagnosed death, number of ventilators, people die faster than recover, etc.).Raider said:No, he is not.
You, like many others, are spreading misinformation and fear. I don’t care if it’s an anonymous message board, we all have a social responsibility not perpetuate this kind of crap. You can spin it as fact, but you know it’s complete garbage.
And it PR is right, and you teach college students, wow.
HookedonGriz said:I am now convinced Griz psych is the one responsible for the UK models that estimated 5,000,000 deaths and recently walked that back to 20,000. Talk about a swing and a miss. I kid Griz psych.....sort of.....I know what your equation is but it’s not a fair one, unless you were just trolling.
ilovethecats said:PlayerRep said:100,000 - 240,000, according to the White House advisors.
"And they said they hoped mortality from the disease could be reduced below the low end of the estimate."
I don't see the US getting close to that number.
Me neither. And even if it did it would be a death rate of about .073% of our population. Far far below some of the crazy claims a couple weeks ago. I hope it’s much much lower!
Grizbeer said:There is no reason to go to the grocery store. You can order everything you need on line from virtually any store and have it delivered. You can order every day if you want and most if not all stores are offering free delivery.IdaGriz01 said:"Rock and a hard place." If you go out and "stock up" for a really long "siege," you might be depriving other shoppers who are really, really short. But if you don't, you may come up short yourself. So far, we've managed to stretch it out to 7-8 days between trips. Still, when we went out yesterday, the grocery store had not been able to completely restock the soup racks. Suck it up, buttercup! Cream of celery ain't that bad. (Mostly) filled one cart and called it good.
One small good that could come of this. As someone mentioned elsewhere, Albertson's has installed clear plastic screens to shield their checkers. Considered how many "random" people they are exposed to, this is a great idea ... and worth keeping "forever."
The vast majority of Americans are making incredible sacrifices in order to keep our most vulnerable neighbors safe and avoid crashing our health care systems. It would be helpful if our most vulnerable could meet us halfway by not exposing themselves to unnecessary risk.
PlayerRep said:grizpsych said:You all are reading more into my post than required. I didn't make the numbers up, I just put the numbers into the above equation to see what the current likelihood is for each outcome. I'm fully aware that there are factors that influence the validity of the result (e.g., non-diagnosed sick, low-testing, non-diagnosed recovery, non-diagnosed death, number of ventilators, people die faster than recover, etc.).
So, using your formula, what number of deaths for Montana?
HookedonGriz said:I am now convinced Griz psych is the one responsible for the UK models that estimated 5,000,000 deaths and recently walked that back to 20,000. Talk about a swing and a miss. I kid Griz psych.....sort of.....I know what your equation is but it’s not a fair one, unless you were just trolling.
'68griz said:Grizbeer said:There is no reason to go to the grocery store. You can order everything you need on line from virtually any store and have it delivered. You can order every day if you want and most if not all stores are offering free delivery.
The vast majority of Americans are making incredible sacrifices in order to keep our most vulnerable neighbors safe and avoid crashing our health care systems. It would be helpful if our most vulnerable could meet us halfway by not exposing themselves to unnecessary risk.
Not all of us live where there is delivery service. I wanted to order a meal from a restaurant last night, but all the delivery services said we were "outside of delivery range." So, we had leftovers...
grizpsych said:PlayerRep said:So, using your formula, what number of deaths for Montana?
Here is the same metric for Montana. (of course larger samples are better!) 38 known cases have come to a conclusion. Out of those 38 cases that have come to a conclusion (recovered versus died), six have died. Thus, (6/38)*100 = 15.8% of Montanans diagnosed with COVID-19 and have reached a conclusion have died. Doing the same thing for the entire world, we get 21%. It's the first metric on the right of the screen here. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Kudos for Montana being below current average. Note. I still realize the factors that skew this metric. But, this metric is important because it is not a projection. It is based on current descriptive statistics--as flawed as they might be.