Trophy Kids

[casewinter13]

I won't argue the premise, but your example is God awful. You chose to compare a slower than average, less than average overall athlete with average ball skills and average at best height(all on a position played basis) to an athletic freak with above average balls skills and touch around the basket(again, per position).

Well, no. It's how talent develops with experience, when experience is not equal. The "talent" then looks lacking in precisely that metric, because that's how "Experience Bias" shapes the athlete selection process.

Here's my issue with everything you just stated...it's all theory and completely ignores arguably the two largest pieces of the 3 piece reaching your potential puzzle . That's not how athletes get better. Athletes get better by drilling their skills into muscle memory on top of innate talent level. Game experience is the final piece of the piece, but I can assure you, as an evaluator of talent, Bradshaw's reasons for limited minutes don't stem from an "experience bias".

I didn't dump on your premise, it's not without merit, I dumped on your example because the experience bias only accounts for actual game experience in your"study", it doesn't account for skill building during and in off season. I'm not even saying Riley has reached his limited potential, what I'm saying is that he'd get much closer to reaching it by being a better shooter, for example, which has been within his control and has little to do with an experience bias.

 

[UMGriz75]

So you don't feel that you cut your own throat with regard to the argument you have made that Martin isn't Pac12 material with your post in this thread?

Well, what I was trying to do was present an evidentiary record. I realize how difficult it is to present "nuance" on fan forums. What I did specifically say, after reviewing the very mixed record that Martin had, specifically at the Pac-12 level, was this:

UMGriz75 wrote:
Yes, given the experience he got at Montana, could he play Pac-12 "now?" Probably.

You will note, I hope, my emphasis precisely on the point of "experience." How that arrives at the level of "throat cutting" I cannot say, since my throat, at the moment, seems "OK." It still works anyway, and there is no blood in sight. I do look at Martin's experience as making my specific point, and it worked very well in his case. The "Talent" can only overcome "Experience" if it gets the opportunity to overcome the "Experience Bias" with increased "experience." Martin Breunig may be an outstanding example of exactly what I was describing.

That was, in fact, what I was trying to move our Olympic sports to: providing equal experience for all competitors, so that "talent" would be the distinguishing factor, not "experience." The irony was that that required maximizing each competitor's experience.

 

[UMGriz75]

I didn't dump on your premise, it's not without merit, I dumped on your example because the experience bias only accounts for actual game experience in your"study", it doesn't account for skill building during and in off season. I'm not even saying Riley has reached his limited potential, what I'm saying is that he'd get much closer to reaching it by being a better shooter, for example, which has been within his control and has little to do with an experience bias.

Oh man, I had to get up this morning at 5:30 am to teach an early 2 hour class at the U to UM athletes on sport skill building, including conditioning, fine motor control, and developing reaction times. I get paid to do that based on the fact that I have been doing that part for over 30 years and trained a substantial number of UM athletes that became nationally ranked or recognized in their respective sports. I am hanging on past retirement age to do so. I understand exactly what that means because I am a sport professional on that point. Frankly, after 40 years including my own competitive career, I am at the point where drinking my coffee and reading the paper, for the first time, sounds better. Never thought I would think that way.

I understand what you are trying to say, but I also understand that, "in front of the crowd" there is an additional factor, and experience is the only avenue to success.

 

[GrizLA]

I didn't dump on your premise, it's not without merit, I dumped on your example because the experience bias only accounts for actual game experience in your"study", it doesn't account for skill building during and in off season. I'm not even saying Riley has reached his limited potential, what I'm saying is that he'd get much closer to reaching it by being a better shooter, for example, which has been within his control and has little to do with an experience bias.

Oh man, I had to get up this morning at 5:30 am to teach an early 2 hour class at the U to UM athletes on sport skill building, including conditioning, fine motor control, and developing reaction times. I get paid to do that based on the fact that I have been doing that part for over 30 years. I am hanging on past retirement age to do so. I understand exactly what that means because I am a sport professional on that point. Frankly, after 40 years including my own competitive career, I am at the point where drinking my coffee and reading the paper, for the first time, sounds better. Never thought I would think that way.

I understand what you are trying to say, but I also understand that, "in front of the crowd" there is an additional factor, and experience is the only avenue to success.

Don't I know that! Nothing is finer than to be in Carolina in moooooorning..but, how do you explain Lillard?

 

[casewinter13]

I didn't dump on your premise, it's not without merit, I dumped on your example because the experience bias only accounts for actual game experience in your"study", it doesn't account for skill building during and in off season. I'm not even saying Riley has reached his limited potential, what I'm saying is that he'd get much closer to reaching it by being a better shooter, for example, which has been within his control and has little to do with an experience bias.

Oh man, I had to get up this morning to teach an early 2 hour class at the U to UM athletes on sport skill building, including conditioning, fine motor control, and developing reaction times. I get paid to do that based on the fact that I have been doing that part for over 30 years. I am hanging on past retirement age to do so. I understand exactly what that means because I am a sport professional on that point. Frankly, after 40 years including my own competitive career, I am at the point where drinking my coffee and reading the paper, for the first time, sounds better. Never thought I would think that way.

I understand what you are trying to say, but I also understand that, "in front of the crowd" there is an additional factor, and experience is the only avenue to success.

I prefer to remain as private as possible, but skills training and talent evaluation are where I earn mine as well. Again, my issue wasn't with premise, but example.

Martin Breunig UM > Martin Breunig UW... some skills building and certainly experience combined.

Martin Breunig > Riley Bradshaw experience aside.

 

[UMGriz75]

Don't I know that! Nothing is finer than to be in Carolina in moooooorning..but, how do you explain Lillard?

I don't know his detail training history and experience. Couldn't say.

 

[UMGriz75]

Martin Breunig UM > Martin Breunig UW... some skills building and certainly experience combined.

Martin is a very good example of how "experience" can reveal talent. That's why "sport systems" to be truly effective at developing athletic talent, must equalize "experience" in order to distinguish "talent."

 

[casewinter13]

Martin Breunig UM > Martin Breunig UW... some skills building and certainly experience combined.

Martin is a very good example of how "experience" can reveal talent. That's why "sport systems" to be truly effective at developing athletic talent, must equalize "experience" in order to distinguish "talent."

Absolutely..Martin's a great example. Holding up Bradshaw and Martin is not. That is all

 

[UMGriz75]

Martin Breunig UM > Martin Breunig UW... some skills building and certainly experience combined.

Martin is a very good example of how "experience" can reveal talent. That's why "sport systems" to be truly effective at developing athletic talent, must equalize "experience" in order to distinguish "talent."

Absolutely..Martin's a great example. Holding up Bradshaw and Martin is not. That is all

Bradshaw is sitting on the bench about as much as Martin his sophomore year at UW. My point is that Riley will likely not get the "chance" that Martin did to overcome that. I doubt that Martin would have if he had remained in that program. It's the breaks of the game.

 

[grizindabox]

Bradshaw is a waste of D1 roster space.....

 

[PlayerRep]

Bradshaw is a waste of D1 roster space.....

I don't agree. He started a few games early in the season. Didn't take advantage of his opportunity. Let other guys get ahead of him. Should be shooting much better. Should have a role in coming off the bench and making some plays and defending and hustling. Again, hasn't knocked down shots, and hasn't seemed to be a spark off the bench. I wonder if his confidence is down. He has more talent and potential than he's been showing, and now he's not getting much opportunity. Some of you may be right that he's not going to get enough opportunity again, but I'm not giving up on him.

 

[maroonandsilver]

Bradshaw is a waste of D1 roster space.....

I don't agree. He started a few games early in the season. Didn't take advantage of his opportunity. Let other guys get ahead of him. Should be shooting much better. Should have a role in coming off the bench and making some plays and defending and hustling. Again, hasn't knocked down shots, and hasn't seemed to be a spark off the bench. I wonder if his confidence is down. He has more talent and potential than he's been showing, and now he's not getting much opportunity. Some of you may be right that he's not going to get enough opportunity again, but I'm not giving up on him.

Bradshaw is mired behind 3 guards who are quicker, more athletic, and better scorers than he is. And it ain't gonna get any easier for him to garner minutes next year.

 

[UMGriz75]

Didn't take advantage of his opportunity. Let other guys get ahead of him. Should be shooting much better. Should have a role in coming off the bench and making some plays and defending and hustling. Again, hasn't knocked down shots, and hasn't seemed to be a spark off the bench.

As I noted elsewhere, Riley's FG % is just awful, absolutely dismal and it used to be very good. The kid was a shooter in high school. Hard to say why that would or even could happen. Frankly, he can't expect much play time with that %. Yes, there is the argument that coming off the bench cold every now and then will do that -- Mario Dunn hasn't been hitting well either -- but then what about DeJong?

 

[grizfnz]

Didn't take advantage of his opportunity. Let other guys get ahead of him. Should be shooting much better. Should have a role in coming off the bench and making some plays and defending and hustling. Again, hasn't knocked down shots, and hasn't seemed to be a spark off the bench.

As I noted elsewhere, Riley's FG % is just awful, absolutely dismal and it used to be very good. The kid was a shooter in high school. Hard to say why that would or even could happen. Frankly, he can't expect much play time with that %. Yes, there is the argument that coming off the bench cold every now and then will do that -- Mario Dunn hasn't been hitting well either -- but then what about DeJong?

DeJong has taken 20 shots, which if charted have probaly been less than 5 feet from the hoop. Riley has attempted 23 shots, 13 from beyond the arc.
I also see Riley has only attempted 2 free throws which would indicate to me that he's settling for jumpers and not slashing to the hoop for higher percentage shots.

 

[Potomac Griz]

Bradshaw played a TON for the Griz last year (many games 20+ minutes). He averaged over 15 minute a game, so I'd say he got quite a lot of experience last year. Towards the end of the year he had some nice games for the Griz too. Early on he really struggled with his shooting though (much like so far this year).

He came into this season as a starter (starting the first couple of games) but Oguine ended up getting more playing time due to making an immediate impact. Unfortunately Bradshaw just hasn't found his shot yet this year (only shooting 23% from 3 and 26% from the field overall) and as a result his minutes have gone down. With Dunn being back now Bradshaw's minutes are likely going to be very low unless we get guards in foul trouble.

I think the question we have to ask is who gets their minutes cut back to get Bradshaw more minutes at this point? Oguine? Wright? Dunn? Oguine is one of the best freshman in the conference right now (if not the best) and on the leader list in many Big Sky conference statistical categories. Wright is in the leader list for points, assists, assist/turnover ratio, rebounding, 3 point percentage, FT%, 3 pointers made, etc etc in conference. Dunn is a little rusty still but seems to be coming along nicely and as always is a tremendous defender. His stats and minutes are only going to go up. Next year it's going to be even tougher with a healthy Dunn, Wright, Oguine, Pridgett and Rorie.

I do hope Bradshaw's shots start falling again like towards the end of last season... We could use another 3 point threat out there especially when our normal threats aren't hitting and teams are just focusing on stopping Breunig. It too bad to see he's struggling so much out there & got his minutes cut as a result. That's likely very frustrating for him to see his minutes decline so much in his Junior season.

 

[SWeberCat02]

Don't I know that! Nothing is finer than to be in Carolina in moooooorning..but, how do you explain Lillard?

I don't know his detail training history and experience. Couldn't say.

No one works harder than Lillard. Of course he was blessed with natural athletic ability, but no way would he be where he is today without all of the hard work he has put in away from actual games. He's the direct opposite of a trophy kid. Coming from where he has (the rough streets of Oakland, broken foot, and a small conference) dude has earned everything he's received and has had nothing given to him.

 

[PlayerRep]

I think the starters are playing too many minutes. Ideally, there would be more subbing. Come tourney time, the starters are not going to be able to play effectively for high minutes game after game. That doesn't mean that I think Bradshaw should get more minutes.

 

[EverettGriz]

Come tourney time, the starters are not going to be able to play effectively for high minutes game after game.

In the 2012 BSC title game, the Griz did not sub at all in the second half until under a minute was left, and Tinks made wholesale substitutions so that the starters could get recognized by the crowd. The starters effectively played the entire second half. This team is certainly deeper than that one, though, and I think the rotation has been fine.

 

[Mousegriz]

40 minute game...media timeout every 4 minutes, lots of FT's, several other stoppages and team TO's during every game.

Can't recall....didn't we win the 2012 title game? Sure wish we'd have gotten Kareem some more rest in that one because he sure looked tired raining threes in on Weber the whole second half that night.....and if only AJ could have rested a little more in his memorable second half vs. Weber. Put in a sub and cool 'em off!!

 

[EverettGriz]

40 minute game...media timeout every 4 minutes, lots of FT's, several other stoppages and team TO's during every game.

Can't recall....didn't we win the 2012 title game? Sure wish we'd have gotten Kareem some more rest in that one because he sure looked tired raining threes in on Weber the whole second half that night.....and if only AJ could have rested a little more in his memorable second half vs. Weber. Put in a sub and cool 'em off!!

:lol:

Kareem was ridiculous that night! There was a point about midway through the second half where he drained like his 4th straight bomb, this one from about 26 feet. Lilliard, who was guarding him, just looked over to Rahe with an expression like, "Well WTF do you want me to do??!?". That game and the one the next year were awesome.